Facing the Decline

Key Findings

We must support LAUSD in making informed decisions about its future. We hope this analysis will help district leaders, policymakers, and community stakeholders understand the urgent need for creative solutions that preserve educational quality while addressing the reality of changing demographics and fiscal constraints.

• The Scale of the Decline

  LAUSD enrollment has dropped from 724,113 students in 2002-03 to 408,026 in 2024-25. The district lost nearly 80,000 students in just the past five years, with LAUSD projecting an additional 32,365 to leave by 2027-28. Every Board District has experienced significant losses, ranging from 18% in District 3 to 34% in District 1.

• Why Students are Leaving

  Multiple intersecting factors drive the exodus. Demographic shifts include a 30% drop in Los Angeles County births between 2014-2023 and net out-migration of over 530,000 residents since 2014. Economic pressures from rising housing costs disproportionately affect Black, Latino, and low-income communities. Political factors include immigration enforcement, creating fear.

• The Financial Reality

  Declining enrollment poses a direct threat to LAUSD’s $18 billion-plus annual budget, with 69% of funding tied to per-student formulas. The district is grappling with a structural deficit while allocating 90% of its General Fund to personnel costs. Expenses have surged — driven by rising pension and health benefit obligations, increased special education needs, and persistent inflation. Increased chronic absenteeism worsens the financial situation, as state funding is tied to Average Daily Attendance (ADA). Even with perfect attendance, LAUSD’s ADA, and consequently its state funding, would still be over 100,000 students lower than a decade ago.

• Impact on Student Experience

  Schools are losing key positions like counselors and assistant principals due to enrollment thresholds. Smaller schools struggle to offer full academic programs and electives, while high-need schools face disproportionate impacts from “last-in, first-out” policies. Fixed facility costs spread across fewer students reduce efficiency and limit specialized programming opportunities.

• Equity Concerns Intensify

  Higher-need schools experience steeper enrollment declines, threatening to widen existing achievement gaps. The pandemic alone caused LAUSD to lose 25,791 students in 2021—three times the projected amount—with recent climate emergencies threatening further displacement of vulnerable families.

• District Response Underway

  Under Superintendent Alberto Carvalho’s leadership, LAUSD has initiated a state-required Fiscal Stabilization Plan. The district is reviewing central office operations, administrative staffing, and program return on investment while using reserve funds as a temporary measure.

• Critical Planning Needs

  The district must balance maintaining educational excellence with fewer resources while avoiding cuts that disproportionately harm schools serving the most vulnerable students. This requires flexible staffing models, strategic partnerships, and innovative delivery approaches that move beyond rigid enrollment-based formulas.